A commonly asked question faced by recruitment teams within universities, especially ahead of a running cycle, is whether it is best to rely on existing markets, or to research new ones. It is a conundrum as while both options appear to be valid at various times, the wrong choice could also entail grave consequences.
A Global Enrolment Benchmark Survey conducted in May 2026 and covering over 254 institutions from 36 countries showed that the priority for our industry today is geographical diversification, which was ahead of creation of new programmes, branding and financial incentives in the ranking of strategic goals. This is no mere coincidence. Both the US and Canadian institutions have been experiencing a decline in international student recruitment in recent months, with over 60% of them reporting lower numbers of international students in the first quarter of 2026 compared to the same period in 2025. The institutions that kept their international student recruitment efforts limited to only a few key countries now feel the consequences of this choice.
Hence, the question is not about whether to expand internationally, but rather about how to do so, while keeping in mind the current stage of your activities.
What Is Market Entry in International Student Recruitment?
Market entry refers to the process of entering a new territory where there is no existing local student population and therefore no established recruiting system. You are effectively entering a market with no brand awareness, no established agents, no original alumni and no proven history of visa success. Everything must be done from the ground up.
According to Aexus research on international market entry strategy, the average timeline for new entrants to start seeing results can range from 12 to 24 months. That is, in comparison, a much slower timeline than existing market expansion efforts, which take, on average, from 6 to 12 months.
There are certain hindrances for universities in this process that need to be taken into account. Major obstacles for universities in new international recruiting markets consist in dealing with a new regulatory system, finding reliable local partners, and establishing recognition in those markets while competing with universities that have been there for some time.
What Is Market Expansion?
Market expansion, sometimes called market penetration in broader business strategy, is about growing your share in markets where you already have a foothold. You already have students from this country. You have some agent relationships, maybe some alumni. The institution has a name that at least some prospective students might recognise.
In this context, the desired outcome is to improve efficiency by achieving more student enrollment, widening the range of programs offered to students, and raising the conversion rate from inquiry to application to enrollment. The funding is directed towards advertising, promoting agents, attracting alumni, and effective release of products rather than financing the entire infrastructure development.
Market Entry vs Market Expansion: What’s the Difference?
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Factor
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Market Entry
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Market Expansion
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Starting point
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No current presence
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Existing student base
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Risk level
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Higher, unknown demand, no track record
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Lower, known conditions and students
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Investment required
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Substantial upfront (people, partnerships, marketing)
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More targeted (yield, agents, conversion)
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Time to results
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12–24 months typically
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6–12 months typically
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Primary objective
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Diversification, new student pipelines
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Stronger share, reduced drop-off
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Brand recognition
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Built from zero
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Already exists to some degree
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Both are valid. It is necessary for universities to have a
portfolio, considering the older markets, gradually expanding this market portfolio to include a wider number of new
ones. The mistake occurs when approaches applied for both markets are treated as the same.
When Should Universities Consider Market Entry?
The honest answer: when existing markets are either saturated,
declining, or both. Right now, that describes the position many UK, Canadian, and Australian institutions are in
with their traditional source markets.
Some specific triggers that make new market entry worth
considering:
- Your top two or three source markets represent 60% or more of your
international student body, concentration risk is real
- Policy changes in a source country (or destination country) are
materially affecting application volumes
- Competitor institutions are visibly building presence in a market
where you have none
- Your mix of programmes may represent a good match to the interests
of students from certain areas that you are not currently serving.
Recent data about markets like Nigeria and the Philippines and some
Latin American countries emphasizes the importance of the exploration of newest markets. As for Nigeria, it’s now
the 3rd biggest country by the number of students going abroad, with the number totaling 146,286, according to
UNESCO. Philippines students going to Canada increased by 112% in just one year – 2022. Ecuador, Peru, and Colombia
show signs of progress regarding outbound mobility: the number of students from Peru studying in the US increased by 60% from 2019-2024.
These are not potential markets of the future. They are happening
now. Those organizations who acted quickly gain the upper hand before other institutions start taking action.
Specifically, for those attempting to enter Sub-Saharan markets for recruitment, this involves more than finding out whether a market exists; it also entails understanding visa
protocols, agents operating in the market and what motivates students from different nations and cultures within the
region.
When Should Universities Consider Market Expansion?
Market expansion makes sense when the opportunity in an existing
market is not yet fully developed, when you know there is more to get and you are not getting all of it. A few
indicators:
- Conversion rates from your existing market are below what
comparable institutions achieve
- You have a pipeline of enquiries and applications that are dropping
off before enrolment
- Your agent network in a market is thin or inconsistent
- You are winning undergraduates from a country but not
postgraduates, or vice versa
- The source market is growing (India, for example, is still growing
significantly, Indian enrolments in the UK rose 205% from 2019/20 to 2023/24) and your share is not keeping pace
How to Evaluate a New International Recruitment Market
Before committing budget and staff time to a new market entry, a
structured evaluation process avoids the most common mistakes. The key things to assess:
Outbound mobility trends
Is the number of students from this country studying abroad growing
or declining? UNESCO data, ICEF Monitor reporting, and national government statistics give a reasonable picture. A
country with strong and growing outbound mobility is a very different proposition from one that is flat or
declining.
Destination preferences
Where are students from this market already going? Even if they are
not choosing your country as their destination, it is still important to understand some factors that lead them to
their choices. The factors motivating them are language, visa eligibility, work opportunities, the presence of
foreign nationals settling in that country, and so on.
Competitive density
How many institutions are already recruiting heavily in this
market? In case you are operating in a region characterized by high demand and low number of institutions, this can
be a great opportunity. If the area is already characterized by high demand and a large number of institutions, you
will have to come up with a strong differentiation strategy before entering the market.
Infrastructure requirements
What is actually required to operate in this market? Agent
recruitment, local presence of a representative, partnership relations, participating in events, and digital
marketing in the local language are examples of what varies tremendously by region? Some universities decide to enter the market without being present physically, while it has become quite common to enter foreign markets without
a physical campus.
How Universities Can Expand Existing International Markets
For markets where you already have students, the expansion levers
are different from entry. A few that tend to move the needle:
- Agent development: The most capable agents in the market are the
ones that should be utilized the most. When the focus is on agents already working within the framework of the
company rather than on training new recruits, the results are always more positive.
- Alumni engagement: Those students that are either studying or have
recently graduated in a host country become the most credible spokesmen in the target market.
- Program promotion: Many universities have low performance results
in the market not due to unwillingness of students to study at these universities, but because students do not know
what programs are offered. Clear messaging about programs solves that problem.
- Yield management: Conversion rates from application to enrollment
vary in different countries. It is important to know where and why students are leaving at specific points in the
conversion process, and assist them to complete the process.
It is also worth mentioning that according to ICEF’s May 2026 survey, over 40% of universities in Australia, Canada and the UK are going to cut expenses during the next 12
months. In that situation, expansion in established markets delivers better returns than entry into new ones.
Use a Test-and-Learn Approach for New Markets
One of the most sensible things that universities can do before
going for full market entry is a test phase, which is a comparatively small investment made for a limited period of
time to accumulate some real data instead of committing any long-term commitments.
What this looks like in practice:
- Go to some fairs in the targeted country before entering into
agency agreements.
- Have a small scale targeted digital advertising campaign in the
market in one recruitment cycle to check not only the amount of enquiries received, but also their quality.
- Partner with one or two trusted agents on a pilot basis before
expanding your agent network
- Track whether enquiries from the market convert to applications at
a rate that justifies deeper investment
When considering to use regional hubs as a part of their growth
strategy, universities need to consider the infrastructure, costs involved, and governance issues in building regional hubs – all of these can be easily overlooked at the planning stage.
Compare Market Entry and Expansion Using Data
- Pakistan: outbound students grew 81% from 2020 to 2023 (UNESCO).
Now the UK’s 4th-largest source country, up from 17th in 2019/20.
- Bangladesh: outbound students grew 53% in the same period. Now the
UK’s 9th-largest source, up from 19th.
- Nepal: 12,715 students in the UK in 2023/24, up from 1,270 in
2019/20, nearly a 10x increase in four years.
- Philippines: UNESCO outbound student growth of 58% from 2020 to
2023. Canada’s 4th-largest source country.
- Latin America: Ecuador +49%, Peru +19%, Colombia +11% in the same
period, with US enrolments from Peru up 60% between 2019/20 and 2024/25.
Sources: UNESCO outbound student data; KEG, Emerging Student Markets for Higher Education in 2026
These numbers make the case for entry. But the parallel question is
whether your institution has the capacity to enter any of these markets meaningfully while also maintaining or
growing your performance in existing ones.
Avoid Common International Market Expansion Mistakes
A few patterns show up repeatedly among institutions that struggle
with both entry and expansion:
- Applying the same entry framework as for establishment: When you
apply the same marketing mix, agent’s briefing and success time frame to a new market as what is being utilized in
an established one, it fosters an unrealistic perception and leads to an early exit from the market.
- Overextending into multiple markets at the same time: Diversifying
is a must, however, by making a step into ten markets at the same time, you overextend your potential and budget’s
reach, thus being unable to build any presence in one or another market.
- Disregarding existing markets while entering new ones: There is a
high chance that upcoming new market entry causes a drain of resources and attention away from existing markets
having already gained some knowledge of them.
- Ignoring the conversion data: Numerous institutions have been
measuring their success based on the enquiries and applications made by prospective candidates instead of the
enrolment numbers. Spotting the gaps in the conversion pipeline with the help of market data is very important in
the series of strategies and plans for market expansion of institutions.
Build a Balanced International Recruitment Growth Strategy
The most effective international student recruitment strategies are
not all-in on either entry or expansion, they run both in a managed portfolio. A reasonable structure might look
like this:
- Core markets (60–70% of recruitment investment): Two or three
established markets where you have strong presence. Focus is on yield, conversion, and share growth rather than
brand building
- Growth markets (20–30% of investment): Markets where you have a
foothold but meaningful headroom. Active expansion through agent development, targeted marketing, and programme
promotion
- Test markets (5–15% of investment): One or two genuinely new
markets being evaluated through a time-limited test phase before any major commitment
UniNewsletter covers this landscape in depth, tracking data on
source markets, destination trends, and the strategic approaches universities are using to build more resilient
international recruitment portfolios across both entry and expansion contexts. The UniNewsletter higher education resource hub brings together recruitment intelligence, market data, and practical analysis for teams working through
exactly these decisions.
Final Takeaway
Market entry and expansion do not compete with each other. They
address different questions, need financial investments of different amounts, and produce varied results in
different time frames. The failure to distinguish between the market entry strategy and the market expansion
strategy significantly impacts the performance of international student recruitment plans.
It is important to note that there is no choice of whether to
diversify international student recruitment strategy. The real question regarding the plans for market entry and
expansion is how much money should be invested into each of those activities and in what order.
Looking for market intelligence, recruitment data, and strategic
guidance to inform your international recruitment planning?
Explore UniNewsletter’s Higher Education Resources
Frequently Asked Questions
What is market entry in international student recruitment?
Market entry refers to recruitment in a particular country or
region where your institution is either new or has very little presence. In this process, a lot of resources are
typically used to create awareness, establish agent relations, and maintain application pipelines.
What is market expansion in international student recruitment?
Market expansion refers to the increase of enrolments in the
country or region in which the institution is already present. It utilizes previously established agents, alumni,
and knowledge of the market to increase the reach and conversion rates.
What is the difference between market entry and market expansion in
higher education?
Market entry brings to a new market; market expansion means
building on a market already established. One must realize that market entry requires more time and investments as
opposed to market expansion.
When should a university enter a new international student market?
New market opportunities appear when the market slows down, becomes
too concentrated, and there are emerging countries where the growth of outbound students is promising. Universities
can test the market potential through the participation in fairs, campaigns or with the help of several agents.
How can universities expand recruitment in existing international
markets?
Furthermore, universities may strengthen the relationships with
agents, involve their alumni in the outreach to the potential students, advertise their programs, paying attention
to the local career interests, as well as face the application difficulties. The conversion rate at the market level
will help to identify the areas for possible investments.
How can universities evaluate new international student recruitment
opportunities?
Look into outbound student flows to see which destinations students
prefer and what competition already exists. This includes analysis of the resources necessary for operating in the
market. Sources of information about market trends can be UNESCO, ICEF Monitor, and national statistics.
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